Remedy Safety Overconfidence

Skier Heidi Julavits’ avalanche safety instructor cautioned his students about the indisputable statistical evidence: As a result of participating in his workshop, the students would become much more likely to die in an avalanche.
     With her subsequently written New York Times Magazine article, Ms. Julavits reports the main reason as overconfidence. People who believe they know how to avoid avalanche dangers choose to ski in areas susceptible to those dangers and otherwise persist in the face of avalanche signs. My guess is that the instructor’s warning was not intended to discourage workshop enrollment, but rather to stifle overconfidence. When preparing your customers, clients, and patients for a course of action which is markedly risky, provide the same. A caution to remain cautious. One tip in the avalanche safety workshop was to test snowpacks for proof of instability rather than proof of stability. When testing for stability, you’re seeking permission to go ahead.
     Permission to go ahead also can arise from backup plans. The availability of smoking cessation programs can lead to people smoking more, since the people get the impression they can stop anytime they choose to. And once a consumer has gone through a debt consolidation program, that consumer may become more likely to spend irresponsibly, since the consumer figures they can go through a debt consolidation program again. Researchers at University of Pennsylvania, University of Florida, and University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill point out how backup plans—in this case, what is called remedy marketing—can have unintended consequences.
     As a marketer, also remedy for yourself any overconfidence in safety when collaborating with others. Working with retailer colleagues or with your suppliers has many advantages. And handling risks is an inevitable component of ongoing organizational success. But the risky shift often looms.
     “Risky shift” refers to how groups of people make more extreme recommendations than if those people acted individually. Being insulated from full responsibility by the group, members of a committee can find themselves tempted to take potentially perilous chances. Contributing to the risky shift regarding avalanches and high stakes marketing are the temptation to exploit unexplored terrain, pride in commitment to a challenging outcome, and a reluctance to call for a halt when with enthusiastic partners.
     Taking on considerable risk is sometimes necessary for successfully achieving objectives. In appreciating the advantages of exercising caution during those situations, you will help ensure the success is ongoing.

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