Anchor Policy Anchors in the Policy

For how many months should a person be eligible to receive unemployment benefits? What do you think the minimum wage should be? The way citizens answer such questions of time and money can be influenced by numbers they are exposed to before being asked the questions.
     It’s called anchoring. In a classic example of anchoring, study participants were shown either a low or a high number on a roulette wheel and were subsequently asked to estimate the percentage of countries on the African continent currently belonging to the United Nations. The average of answers from those participants having received the low roulette wheel number was lower than that from those having received the high number.
     In their own studies of anchoring, as applied to public policy surveying, researchers at CEVIPOF and University of Georgia noted that a number coming from a roulette wheel was wholly irrelevant to the probability of a country’s UN membership. With questions such as the time of unemployment eligibility and the amount of the minimum wage, to what extent will respondents attend to irrelevant numbers given them as reference points for their subsequent individual answers?
     Little or no attention at all, was their answer indicated by the studies. To influence the response, the number presented as part of the inquiry had to be framed as relevant to the policy issue. When the number was perceived as relevant, though, the influence was clear. In fact, the study participants’ numerical responses were influenced to a much greater extent by the reference number they were given than by the political party quoted as the source of the reference number. Democrats answered quite similarly whether the reference number was said to have come from a Democrat or a Republican. The researchers point out how the influence might be greater if the reference number is attributed to specific politicians.
     Publicly elected legislators will want to stay sensitive to prevailing opinions of their constituencies when setting policies. Activists who want to strengthen or change political opinions will want to know where their audiences stand now on the issues. Both groups will succeed by recognizing what is called the Overton window, the window of discourse range within which political viability of a proposal can be expected.
     In surveying your stakeholders, recognize how any time or money number you give as a part of each question will pull the answer toward that number.

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Image at top of post based on video by Paul Daley.