Estimate Imprecisely When Harboring Doubts

We’re often called on to issue numerical estimates under conditions of uncertainty. How many days will it take for the medicine to show a difference? For how many minutes should I cook the brisket? What annual return should I expect on this investment? How many calories are in that salad?
     If the consumer later learns that the estimate was highly accurate, trust in the source is established or reinforced. Therefore, sources who have the expertise to reliably issue exact estimates should do so. But what about circumstances in which the source harbors doubts about their ability to be precise? For those situations, which are arguably the most common, researchers at University of Cincinnati advise intentional imprecision.
     It’s not that people will be more satisfied with the fuzzy estimate when it’s given. No, the opposite is the case. People push for predictability. But when an estimate proves to be off, the consumer earlier given the rounded number comes away with greater trust in the source than if an exact number had been given. This happens even if the imprecision results in a larger error. When an actual value turned out to be 570, study participants given an estimate of 400 (deviation of 170) came away with greater trust in the source than did the matched study participants given an estimate of 417 (deviation of 153).
     Rounding numbers has another advantage when implying benefit durations. Researchers at University of Texas-San Antonio say that, for instance, an energy drink touting “200 mg caffeine” will be perceived as working for a longer time than one touting a higher “203 mg caffeine.” A no-iron shirt claim will garner higher trust if it’s said to last for 40 washes rather than 39 washes.
     The researchers attribute this perception to round numbers feeling more stable. Researchers from University of Florida and National University of Singapore give a related explanation for their similar findings: Rounded numbers, like 10 or 200, are encountered in daily life more often than non-rounded numbers, like 9 or 203, and familiarity builds trust.
     Rounded numbers are easier to conceptualize than precise numbers, so our minds are quite comfortable with that imprecision. Seattle University, Utah State University, and Northwestern University studies found that shoppers are no more likely to buy from a store or buy a product in that store which is rated as “In the Top 9!” than “In the Top 10!”

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