Pile Plenty of Political Polls on People

Voters who support a particular candidate for elective office consider the results of a political poll as less believable when that preferred candidate does less well in the poll. It’s an example of motivated reasoning, in which consumers’ beliefs are influenced more by what they already believe or want to believe than by new information.
     Researchers at Witten/Herdecke University, University of Zurich, and University of Mannheim posit this phenomenon as harmful to society, since in a healthy democracy, voters should be keeping their beliefs correct and current. The research findings indicate that the problem is eased when more poll results from a broader range of sources are provided over the course of a campaign.
     The political affiliation of the voter and the source of news can make a difference. In the researchers’ data set, Democrats’ beliefs were affected more strongly by reports of poll results when the Democratic candidate’s support was increasing rather than decreasing. This was particularly true if the results were said to come from Fox News. When the Democratic candidate was said to be winning, a Democratic respondent weighed Fox News survey results around three times more strongly than when the Democratic candidate was said to be losing. In the case of a poll from an MSNBC source, the increase was more subtle. These considerations did not impact Republican respondents’ belief changes.
     Even when voters’ beliefs are accurate, the effect on support of a candidate isn’t straightforward. Those who believe their favored candidate is clearly prevailing might increase contributions of money and time to the candidate’s campaign because the voter wants to sponsor a winner. But they might instead decrease their further outlays, feeling it’s now unnecessary. Those who come to believe their candidate is far behind might increase campaign contributions because they fear the candidate losing, or they might decrease their contributions because they label the campaign as hopeless.
     Also acknowledge underdog effects. Underdog narratives draw empathy for those who, in the face of resource shortages, are determined to prevail. However, while people root for the underdog, they prefer to affiliate with winners. Show that your candidate has the makings for ultimately winning. You’ll also want to present the candidate as a good sport. Researchers at University of Maryland and Georgetown University say underdog positioning helps most if your target markets see the underdog as sincere, fair, principled, honest, trustworthy, and less than supremely competent.

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Motivate the Rushed Toward Motivated Reasoning 

Spot Partisan Recall of What Never Happened 

Undertake Underdog Appeals with Morals